I look forward to a progressive and profitable year for the Limousin breed in Australia.

The discovery of one dairy cow infected with BSE (mad cow disease) is having a devastating effect on the US beef industry just as it did on the Canadian beef industry in May 2003. Although Australia banned the feeding of meat meal to ruminants in 1994, three years earlier than the USA, it would be naive to think that a case of BSE could not be found in Australia.

The effect on the Australian beef industry which exports 60% of production would be even more devastating.

The case of BSE in the USA is also a timely reminder of the importance of the National Livestock Identification System which is now being implemented in Australia.

For both Canada and the USA tracing the history of the infected animal has been difficult because of the absence of a lifetime traceability program.

It is important to trace the history of the infected animal to determine the likely source of infection so that any other animals which may have eaten the same food can be eliminated to prevent them being available for human consumption.

In Canada it was estimated that every extra day taken to trace the animal and those in contact cost $20 million. It will surely be higher in the USA.

The initial expectation is that the banning of imports from the USA by Japan and Korea where we are in direct competition with the USA will have a very positive effect on prices in Australia.

The USA supplies two thirds of Korean beef imports and 45% Japanese beef imports.

However, Australian saleyard prices are underpinned by exports of manufacturing beef to the USA which has taken 50% of Australian exports over the last few months.

The drop in price for beef sold to the USA and the likely build up of beef in the USA due to slowed domestic sales and restricted overseas markets will impact on the Australian beef market.

It is likely that the price for heavier cattle suitable for Japan and Korea will go up even though 30% of the carcase of these cattle goes to the US market as trimmings. Higher prices for export cattle tends to increase the price for lighter cattle suited to our domestic market.

However, there will be downward pressure on prices of cull cows and bulls.

We await the prices at the opening cattle sales next week with great interest.

Today will see the first of the traditional F1 female sales at Warrnambool (Vic).

These sales in Victoria are largly Hereford x Friesian and Angus x Friesian F1 heifers due to calve Jannuary to April and are the basis of the "milk vealer" industry in the south where calves are slaughtered at 9-11 months at liveweights of 350-420kgs.

In last years' sales heifers mated to Limousin bulls made a premium of $100 per head over heifers joined to Angus bulls. The use of a Limosuin bull compared to an Angus to mate these heifers is worth $10,000 to a specialist F1 producer (assumes 25 heifers in calf per year for four years). Similar premiums are expected this year.

A new trend in this years F1 sales is the offering of significant members of F1 Limousin x Friesian heifers at the Warrnambool sale. Research in the UK and presented to the ILC conference in Ireland 1994 showed that F1 Limousin x Friesian cows out performed F1 Hereford x Friesian cows in weight and value of the calves produced.

There are likely to be premiums in Australia for 75% Limousin calves compared to 50% Limousin calves from F1 dams due to the extra muscling.

Are we seeing a trend to the use of Limousin x Friesian F1 cows mated back to Limousin bulls in the traditional vealer production systems in Australia?

Watch this space.

17 February Gingin Premium All Breeds, WA

19 February Supreme Bull Sale, WA

27 February White Lakes, WA

4 March Gingin All Breeds Sale, WA

5 March WA Limousin Sale, Boyanup WA

23 March Colac, Vic

2 April Lardner, Vic

29/30 April National Show & Sale, Wodonga Vic

Here's to a successful 2004

Alex McDonald